Philip Rivers is NOT the Second Biggest Fantasy Bust of 2011

So, our twitter buddy Jerod Morris over at Midwest Sports Fan posted this funny little comic strip here. Before I get going, I do want to point out I think it’s funny. Comedy aside, Rivers doesn’t belong on this “Bust Buddies” list. The opening commentary was this.

Based on what they are being paid by their real life teams, and the production fantasy owners were expecting when they drafted them in the first two rounds, there have been no two bigger non-injury busts in fantasy football this season than Philip Rivers and Chris Johnson. (We’ll forgive Jamaal Charles and Peyton Manning for their season-ending injuries).

He states there are “no two bigger non-injury busts in fantasy football this season.” Hands down, zero argument, Chris Johnson is easily the biggest non-injury fantasy bust so far of 2011. As for Philip? I love him. LOVE me some P. Riv. But, I won’t sit here and claim the Rivers hasn’t been a fantasy bust. I certainly will not defend this season’s under-performance with his stellar fantasy number from previous years. I will, however, dispute that he’s the second biggest bust. That’s crazy talk… well, it’s crazy talk if my mediocre-at-best “research” has any validity at all.

My research is as follows: I only play in Yahoo fantasy leagues. They have a very simple interface. I like it. They have a “Projected Rankings” for users during the draft, then as the season progresses, they have “Actual Rankings”. We’ll call those PR and AR. For the non-fantasy layman, it’s basically just the difference between how the Yahoo fantasy minds expected the players to perform, and how they are actually performing. For example: Adrian Peterson had a PR: 1 and his AR: 4. Pretty freakin’ close. In contrast, our biggest bust has been Chris Johnson with PR: 4, AR: 117. That’s a 113 ranking difference, meaning there are 116 dudes putting up better fantasy numbers than him, when there were supposed to be only 3. Abysmal.

So. Where does our boy Philip Rivers fall as the “second” biggest bust? PR: 20, AR: 45. Under-performing? Yes. Second biggest bust though? Here are a few guys that I think are bigger fantasy busts. (Not including Deangelo Williams [PR: 33, AR: 138] on the below list as he did get a shout-out by MSF above, although I do think he’s a bigger bust than Rivers) Remember, because of the injury clause, I’m not going to include a ton of dudes that are killing fantasy teams w/ injuries. Here they are, my non-injury busts bigger than Philip Rivers, in no particular order:

Roddy White – PR: 14, AR: 74

Shonn Greene – PR: 21, AR: 80

Vincent Jackson – PR: 28, AR: 61

Mike Williams (TB) – PR: 35, AR: 184

Chad Ochocinco – PR: 66, AR: 2443

Sam Bradford – PR: 91, AR: 1912

Now, I know that Philip Rivers might be a player that has more scrutiny in the national media spotlight (which is rare for San Diego athletes), but I think all of these guys are bigger fantasy busts than he is. Also, my inclusion of VJax on the list should hopefully set aside any “homer” comments, because as a Chargers fan, I love him too. I know this entire post is trivial, and most folks don’t care about this crap at all… but I wrote this more for myself than any of you, because I, ya know, felt obliged to defend my boy Rivers.

Oh, and for the record… had the original MSF post been, “The Two Biggest Fantasy Busts that are also the Face of Their Franchise”… I wouldn’t have written this blog at all, because Rivers and CJ3000 would be accurate.

Well, Mr. Morris of MSF…what say you?

-bp

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21 Responses to Philip Rivers is NOT the Second Biggest Fantasy Bust of 2011

  1. Mac says:

    Good post BP, you too Morris, if you are reading this. It’s a solid debate, but I think it boils down to who the face of the franchise is and these two cats are 100% the face of the team. Bradford has Steven Jackson as their face, Ocho has Brady, Roddy White has Matt Ryan and Michael Turner, so I think it was a good addendum for you to add that at the end BP. Either way I am a genius for not drafting either guy. I went with Peyton Manning, BOOOYA!!!

  2. The Black Pearl says:

    You cats are too caught up in your fantasy worlds, this is real life, people have real problems, I mean look at CJ’s grill, that is awful. Get that boy some help. And as far as your boy P-Riv, he needs to accept that Gates isn’t what he once was and sling the ball like the cowboy he is.

  3. Crew says:

    This is like saying “which turd has the least flies on it?”

  4. BigBallinBrett says:

    V-Jax getting a bad rap here, He is getting double every single play and Phil is making poor decisions, he doesn’t deserve to be on that list. The other WR’s need to do work and force the safety’s to take notice or else VJ is gonna get blanketed.
    Nice work BP, love the article

    • bp says:

      thanks. can’t say the other WR’s aren’t trying though… Floyd is like a damn acrobat out there. Rivers just needs to get more accurate. (The 2008 version of Antonio Gates would help too though.)

  5. Caster says:

    i agree with BP… that he HAS wasted everyone’s time but his own with this lengthy post. A more abbreviated “check the stats, dumbass” might’ve sufficed. and the bigger issue…friggin’ Bears …LOCK DOWN MATT FORTE!! pay this man. a workhorse sans gold teeth.

    • bp says:

      dammit. “check the stats, dumbass” is a way better post. thanks for the input.

      why you hatin’ on gold teeth? Black Pearl… how does that make you feel?

  6. The Black Pearl says:

    Caster, how in the world is your boy Forte gonna afford himself some gold teeth when he isn’t gettin paid. Mark my words, once pay day comes, so does the platinum grill.
    BP, I don’t care what you say about gold teeth, No clue what these brotha’s are thinking doing that, you know there girl just cringes every time she kisses him… just repeating in her head “it’s all for the money, it’s all for the money”

  7. Jerod Morris says:

    First off, thanks for posting the photo story and for the kind words. Very much appreciated. And I will say that, unlike you, I didn’t do a whole lot of research before posting. We get 100s of fantasy questions on our site each week, and I know that CJ300 and Rivers have been the two guys who have drawn the most ire over the past few weeks. I went more off of that anecdotal evidence, plus my knowledge that Rivers has the funniest pictures to choose from, in selecting the two of them for photo story lampooning.

    That said…

    Even after review of your stats, I still have to go with Philip Rivers has my #2 fantasy bust of the season so far, for two reasons:

    1) He was drafted, on average, in the second round. As we all know, hitting on your early round draft picks is key in fantasy football, with the importance decreasing with each round. Thus, missing on a 2nd round pick is much more egregious and problematic than missing on, say, VJax or Mike Williams in rounds 3 or 4.

    2) You HAVE to make good weekly choices at QB to win in fantasy football, because in standard leagues you only have one QB slot. And on average, it is the highest scoring single slot on a weekly basis or most teams. Thus, if you are consistently plugging a underperforming player in that slot, it will kill you on a weekly basis. In this case, Rivers’ track record almost hurts him MORE in 2011, because people trust him and keep playing him, yet he keeps throwing up stinkers. A guy like Sam Bradford though, for example, is easy to bench if he struggles for a few weeks because a) you picked him later, and b) you are less likely to be afraid to bench him in fear that “the old Bradford” will come around. That’s why even though Roddy White is underperforming his 2nd round draft slot, I still think Rivers is a bigger bust. You have 2-3 WR slots to help balance out White’s struggles, but only one QB slot.

    So for those two reasons, I’ll stand by my rating of Rivers as one of the two biggest busts in fantasy so far this year. BUT…I still think he’s a good buy low candidate, because he’s too good to not turn it around in the second have of the season.

    • bp says:

      Jerod – Appreciate the response.
      Yes, Rivers provides the best pictures by far. In fact, I would encourage a Rivers photo story weekly.

      You bring up some goods points on the importance of a QB on your fantasy team, and why you’d still put him as the number two fantasy bust. I really think we’re just looking at this from a different set of criteria. You’re placing a much higher value on the uniqueness (1 spot) of the QB on a fantasy roster, and how dependent owners must be on their QB.
      I, on the other hand, was more breaking down BUST quality based on the vast difference in productivity vs. projection of players across the board…where ochocinco, of course, is the runaway winner.
      So, although you bring up valid points, we’re just gonna have to agree to disagree on this one. Shonn Greene’s been bad. And Roddy White still jumps out of me… projected as neck and neck with Megatron, and 6 spots AHEAD of Rivers in the preseason rankings… now he’s 34 spots BEHIND Rivers, and lightyears behind Megatron. Crazy to me that more people aren’t bitching about him…
      As I stated above, Rivers is clearly under-performing… but man, I don’t think a QB averaging over 15 fantasy points a week (yes, I know Rodgers is doubling that, but he’s a freak of nature) can be called the 2nd biggest non-injury bust in fantasy football. A disappointment? Yes. Just not THAT big of one. And, like you said, he’ll turn it around…
      Keep up the good work over at MSF.

  8. little caster says:

    2a. Rashard Mendenhall. Screw him, that America hater.

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